Going into the Texas game, it was pretty much a given the Mountaineers needed a win to keep Big 12 title game hopes alive. Well, they are not completely dead with regards to a chance at a Big 12 title. To quote Jim Carey, “so you’re saying there’s a chance?” WVU’s path to the Big 12 title game is borderline impossible. That said, there is a chance.
First you must understand how the Big 12 tiebreaker works. Here it is, per the Big 12:
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
Now that we have those pesky tiebreakers out of the way, let’s get to the good part.
WVU’s Path To Big 12 Title Game
- Win vs. Oklahoma AND
- Baylor defeats TCU AND
- Iowa State defeats Kansas State AND
- Kansas defeats Oklahoma State AND
- Texas Tech defeats Texas
That’s right, there is only one path for West Virginia to get to the Big 12 title game and it requires all five Big 12 games to go a specific way. To make matters worse a couple of these would be massive upsets.
In this scenario Oklahoma would have the best record in the division at 7-2. Iowa State, TCU and West Virginia would all be 6-3. These three teams would all be 1-1 against each other, so we would move on to the next tiebreaker which is record against Oklahoma. West Virginia and Iowa State would both have wins over Oklahoma. Then the next tiebreaker would be that West Virginia defeated Iowa State, placing the Mountaineers in the Big 12 title game against the Oklahoma Sooners in an immediate rematch.
Hey, no one said it was going to be easy. But there is a chance.
With Baker Mayfield not starting the game against the Mountaineers that cracks the door open a little. Without the win over Oklahoma, the rest of the scenario is for naught.